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Ness Notes for Jan 7

The NFL took 17 weeks to narrow its playoff field to 12 and now

will play an 11-game postseason to determine its champion. The

New England Patriots will try and become the first team to ever

win three Super Bowls and join the Green Bay Packers as the only

team to have won three straight NFL titles. Green Bay won the

NFL title in 1965 and then won Super Bowls I and II following

the 1966 and 1967 seasons.

As I mentioned yesterday, SEVEN of this year's playoffs

participants were not part of last year's postseason, something

that's become somewhat of a trend in recent years. In fact, SIX

of this year's playoff teams are coming off 2004 seasons in

which they were .500 or worse. That list includes Carolina

(7-9), Chicago (5-11), Cincinnati (8-8), the New York Giants

(6-10), Tampa Bay (5-11) and Washington (6-10). One-year

turnarounds like these have become almost routine in the NFL

since 2000. Over the last six seasons, 31 of the 72 playoff

participants (43.1 percent) have been teams that were .500 or

worse the year before.

NFL head coaches have been in the news since the end of the

regular season with teams firing them left and right. THREE of

this year's playoff teams will feature head coaches making their

playoff debuts. Jacksonville's Jack Del Rio and Cincinnati's

Marvin Lewis debut this weekend, with Chicago's Lovie Smith

getting his chance next weekend. New England's Bill Belichick

and Washington's Joe Gibbs each own three Super Bowl rings but

of course Gibbs' last Super Bowl triumph came way back in the

1991 season (SB XXVI).

Mike Shanahan of the Broncos owns two Super Bowl rings, while

Seattle head coach Mike Holmgren won his ring after the 1996

season with Green Bay and Tampa Bay's Jon Gruden won his just

three seasons ago with the Bucs. Pittsburgh's Bill Cowher and

Carolina's John Fox have both led their teams to a Super Bowl

but both lost in their one opportunity. The NY Giants' Tom

Coughlin and Indy's Tony Dungy both have loads of playoff

experience, but neither has reached the NFL's "ultimate" game.

FIVE of this year's teams will open the playoffs with a QB

making his first postseason start. Chris Simms for Washington

and either Byron Leftwich or David Garrard for Jacksonville

debut Saturday. Eli Manning of the Giants and Carson Palmer of

the Bengals get their chance on Sunday, plus the Bears' Rex

Grossman gets his first playoff start next weekend. However, you

may find it surprising that FIVE of the last 10 Super Bowl

champions have been led by a QB making his first postseason

appearance.

Tom Brady is the "leader in the clubhouse", when it comes to

postseason experience and wins among this year's group of

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playoff QBs. Brady has led New England to three Super Bowl

titles over the last four seasons, going a perfect 9-0 in

postseason games. Brady is the only one of this year's playoff

QBs to have won a Super Bowl.

Brunell (4-4) and Manning (3-5) rank behind Brady with eight

playoff appearances each. Delhomme (3-1) has made four previous

postseason starts, leading the Panthers to Super Bowl XXXVIII

following the 2003 season. Jake Plummer (1-3) also owns four

playoff starts, while Ben Roethlisberger (1-1) and Matt

Hasselbeck (0-2) will be making their third postseason starts in

this year's playoffs.

Saturday's games are Washington at Tampa Bay and Jacksonville at

New England. The Bucs beat the 'Skins in Tampa back in Week 10

(36-35), while the Jags and Pats haven't met since late in 2003.

The Bucs are favored by 2 1/2 points (total of 37) and the Pats

are favored by 7 1/2 points (total is also 37).

Ness Notes is available Monday through Friday by 1:00 ET and

Saturday and Sunday at 7:00 ET.

About the author:

Larry Ness is a documented member of the Professional

Handicappers League. Read all of his articles at www.procappers.co

m/Larry_Ness.htm